- The pattern. A candle whose body swallows the body of the candle before it, the other colour. Bullish: it opens at or below the red candle's close and closes above its open.
- David Jones — after a prior trend (“sliding for a few days at least”), in at the close, stop beyond the pattern: “if it takes out the high the pattern's over”. He gives no target.
- Trading Rush — bullish only, above the 200 MA, and he measures whether the next day goes up. His extras: 4+ red candles before, above-average volume, and the candle engulfing the wick too.
- The third video — only with the 100 MA trend, “enter on the very next bar”, stop “just above the highs”, target twice or three times the risk, or half off at 1:1 and half at 2:1.
Trading Rush: “54 out of 100”. He found the next day up 54 times in 100 and called the pattern profitable. On six years of gold daily bars it was up 49.3% of the time over 75 patterns — and any day above the 200 MA was up 52.7% of the time. The pattern did worse than an ordinary day.
| chart | which bars | how many | next bar up |
|---|---|---|---|
| daily | any bar above the 200 MA | 1,089 | 52.7% |
| daily | his test | 75 | 49.3% |
| daily | 4+ red before | 7 | 85.7% |
| daily | volume above average | 39 | 38.5% |
| daily | engulfs the wick too | 18 | 55.6% |
| 1-hour | any bar above the 200 MA | 22,146 | 50.5% |
| 1-hour | his test | 1827 | 50.4% |
| 1-hour | 4+ red before | 155 | 42.6% |
| 1-hour | volume above average | 609 | 52.1% |
| 1-hour | engulfs the wick too | 502 | 50.0% |
| 1-hour | all three | 22 | 36.4% |
The third video: against a random entry. on the daily chart his 2R version makes $661.71 a trade against $1,079.76 for a random entry with the same filter, stop and target, and makes a little money, but not clearly enough to tell; on the 1-hour chart his 2R version makes $61.61 a trade against −$22.16 for a random entry with the same filter, stop and target, and makes a little money, but not clearly enough to tell.
| chart | exit | trades | win | a trade | 95% range | random entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| daily | target 2R | 73 | 39.7% | $661.71 | −$1,148.33 to $2,556.47 | $1,079.76 |
| daily | target 3R | 67 | 32.8% | $955.90 | −$1,244.76 to $3,328.38 | $1,644.25 |
| daily | half 1R, half 2R | 73 | 39.7% | $481.23 | −$1,089.87 to $2,035.10 | $745.41 |
| 1-hour | target 2R | 1948 | 35.0% | $61.61 | −$34.33 to $164.59 | −$22.16 |
| 1-hour | target 3R | 1708 | 27.8% | $95.38 | −$37.82 to $227.05 | −$2.31 |
| 1-hour | half 1R, half 2R | 1948 | 35.4% | $41.18 | −$36.89 to $122.33 | −$39.48 |
David Jones: every exit, since he gives none. He gives no target and no length for the prior trend, so every combination is run: on the daily chart, 12 combinations, none of them clear of the noise either way; on the 1-hour chart, 12 combinations, 5 of them clearly losing.
| chart | prior trend | exit | trades | win | a trade | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| daily | 3 bars | out after 1 bar | 148 | 45.3% | −$188.72 | −$714.83 to $298.99 |
| daily | 3 bars | out after 3 bars | 134 | 52.2% | −$274.48 | −$1,113.55 to $537.22 |
| daily | 3 bars | out after 5 bars | 119 | 43.7% | −$434.83 | −$1,597.91 to $696.11 |
| daily | 3 bars | target 1R | 109 | 48.6% | −$837.66 | −$2,086.81 to $354.33 |
| daily | 3 bars | target 2R | 86 | 37.2% | −$341.74 | −$2,269.91 to $1,567.47 |
| daily | 3 bars | target 3R | 74 | 28.4% | −$898.65 | −$3,145.16 to $1,374.40 |
| daily | 5 bars | out after 1 bar | 128 | 43.8% | −$118.83 | −$547.81 to $340.97 |
| daily | 5 bars | out after 3 bars | 116 | 55.2% | $131.29 | −$651.15 to $905.40 |
| daily | 5 bars | out after 5 bars | 106 | 44.3% | −$90.75 | −$1,132.71 to $979.30 |
| daily | 5 bars | target 1R | 93 | 49.5% | −$320.38 | −$1,567.40 to $916.30 |
| daily | 5 bars | target 2R | 76 | 40.8% | $700.39 | −$1,095.57 to $2,677.14 |
| daily | 5 bars | target 3R | 68 | 30.9% | $435.00 | −$1,742.09 to $2,810.02 |
| 1-hour | 3 bars | out after 1 bar | 3745 | 44.1% | −$37.44 | −$57.25 to −$17.49 |
| 1-hour | 3 bars | out after 3 bars | 3221 | 41.0% | −$42.08 | −$79.40 to −$4.93 |
| 1-hour | 3 bars | out after 5 bars | 2911 | 37.8% | −$15.57 | −$63.84 to $31.98 |
| 1-hour | 3 bars | target 1R | 2608 | 48.4% | −$60.90 | −$116.47 to −$4.62 |
| 1-hour | 3 bars | target 2R | 2082 | 32.7% | −$60.72 | −$142.25 to $24.87 |
| 1-hour | 3 bars | target 3R | 1825 | 25.4% | −$66.02 | −$165.69 to $36.29 |
| 1-hour | 5 bars | out after 1 bar | 3616 | 44.5% | −$39.42 | −$59.29 to −$18.75 |
| 1-hour | 5 bars | out after 3 bars | 3118 | 41.6% | −$36.62 | −$74.13 to −$0.04 |
| 1-hour | 5 bars | out after 5 bars | 2835 | 38.1% | −$10.40 | −$58.86 to $41.66 |
| 1-hour | 5 bars | target 1R | 2512 | 48.9% | −$49.81 | −$107.17 to $6.71 |
| 1-hour | 5 bars | target 2R | 2015 | 33.4% | −$59.18 | −$148.27 to $32.53 |
| 1-hour | 5 bars | target 3R | 1765 | 26.4% | −$15.39 | −$123.73 to $98.90 |
The same numbers, live. This follows the switches above.
Everything else worth saying
Why the teachers are kept apart. Merging them would produce a fourth set of rules that nobody taught. Each gets its own switch and its own table.
Numbers they do not give are shown across their range, not picked: the length of David Jones's prior trend and his exit.
Daily bars are futures sessions, 18:00 to 17:00 New York, not calendar days — cutting at midnight would split every session in two.
What this test does not do
It tests each teacher's stated rules on gold. It does not test the confluence the third video recommends alongside the pattern.
- Not their markets, except David Jones's. Trading Rush names none and the third video trades AUD/NZD.
- Fibonacci and support and resistance are left out. The third video suggests them as extras; choosing which level matters is judgement, and coding it would invent a rule.
- Trading Rush's “skip it if the candle is too big” has no size given, so it is not applied.
- The replay is a sample: 27 daily and 40 1-hour stretches, scored over the whole period. David Jones's replay exits after three bars; every exit is in his table.
If you teach this pattern differently, say how and we will test it the same way and publish it.
Three teachers, one pattern. David Jones of Trading 212 calls it “a very simple but often quite effective” pattern; Trading Rush tested it 100 times and called it profitable; the third video sells an MT4 scanner for it. Each is tested as stated, on gold.
Read it in their own words first: