- The 9:30 gap video — mark a level before 9:30 that price could not break. After 9:30 a candle breaks it; wait for the first fair value gap and buy its 50%. Stop beyond the gap candle and safely beyond the broken level. Once a candle closes past the high made before the pullback, stop to break-even. “At least up to that 1:4”, then let it run. The live day in the video keeps trading until 4pm.
- Pat — the 9:30–9:45 candle is the range. A 5-minute candle closes outside it; set a limit back at a level (the broken edge, the midline). Stop beyond the far side of the range. Take about 30% halfway, then break-even. The live trade shown was 1:2.
- The key-level video — previous-day, Asia (18:00–24:00) and London (03:00–07:00) highs and lows, dropping any already hit. 9:30 to 10:30 only. Price sweeps one, then a single candle engulfs back: in at its close, stop beyond the sweep, target the next level. If that does not pay 1:2, “reduce the stop loss to the body of the candle”; still under 1:2, no trade.
- PFK alpha — longs only above both VWAP and the 1-hour 20 EMA (shorts below both). Enter when the 5-minute 9 EMA crosses the 20 EMA that way. “$60 stop, $60 target”, 1:1.
- The 5-minute range video — the 9:30–9:35 candle's high and low. On the 1-minute, a candle must close outside and leave a fair value gap; enter as the third candle closes. Stop at the candle that broke out. Fixed 2:1.
The same numbers, live. One row per teacher, each at the plain reading of their own rules.
The 9:30 gap video. The video's own model test showed a 36% win rate over 303 trades. Here, trading all day and letting winners run past 1:4, 23.3% won. As stated: 1,675 trades, 23.3% won, $1.07 a trade — makes a little money, but not clearly enough to tell. Across all 6 versions below, 1 clearly losing, and 6 of 6 beat the same trades taken on a coin-flip side. 30.3% of its trades got at least 1:2 its way before the original stop, 13.4% got 1:4. The video does not say how far back the pre-9:30 level is, or how the stop trails past 1:4; each is varied below. Past 1:4 the stop follows each closed 5-minute candle.
| version | trades | win | a trade | 95% range | coin-flip side | got to 1:2 | 1:3 | 1:4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-min, level from the hour before 9:30, run past 1:4, all day | 1,675 | 23.3% | $1.07 | −$4.59 to $6.89 | −$5.28 | 30.3% | 20.5% | 13.4% |
| same, but out at exactly 1:4 | 1,693 | 23.3% | −$0.41 | −$5.54 to $5.15 | −$4.18 | 30.1% | 20.2% | 13.2% |
| same, but only until 11:30 | 673 | 18.7% | −$0.03 | −$10.19 to $10.35 | −$7.82 | 34.5% | 23.5% | 15.3% |
| level from the 30 min before 9:30 | 1,702 | 23.5% | −$0.12 | −$5.70 to $6.07 | −$3.22 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 12.6% |
| level from the 2 hours before 9:30 | 1,627 | 23.3% | $0.47 | −$5.26 to $6.39 | −$6.61 | 31.1% | 20.8% | 13.5% |
| 1-min chart | 4,859 | 17.0% | −$3.38 | −$5.66 to −$1.10 | −$7.43 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 16.1% |
Pat. Pat quotes a 76.2% win rate from live streams. Here, 54.5% of trades won or paid a partial. As stated: 895 trades, 54.5% won, $7.80 a trade — makes a little money, but not clearly enough to tell. Across all 8 versions below, none is clear of the noise either way, and 6 of 8 beat the same trades taken on a coin-flip side. 20.7% of its trades got at least 1:2 its way before the original stop, 3.7% got 1:4. Pat's target is “a recent level”, so 1:1 and 1:2 are both run; the EMA is an optional confirmation.
| version | trades | win | a trade | 95% range | coin-flip side | got to 1:2 | 1:3 | 1:4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| limit at the range edge, 1:2 target | 895 | 54.5% | $7.80 | −$5.46 to $20.88 | −$2.94 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.7% |
| limit at the range edge, 1:2 target, 9/21 EMA agreeing | 693 | 54.4% | $10.08 | −$5.22 to $25.40 | −$2.08 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 3.2% |
| limit at the range edge, 1:1 target | 895 | 67.9% | $4.62 | −$5.74 to $14.82 | −$1.34 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.7% |
| limit at the range edge, 1:1 target, 9/21 EMA agreeing | 693 | 68.0% | $5.52 | −$6.13 to $17.47 | −$2.90 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 3.2% |
| limit at the midline, 1:2 target | 531 | 53.9% | $2.78 | −$6.97 to $12.64 | −$1.60 | 34.3% | 23.5% | 16.0% |
| limit at the midline, 1:2 target, 9/21 EMA agreeing | 393 | 52.9% | $0.33 | −$10.70 to $11.45 | $0.38 | 33.3% | 20.9% | 14.8% |
| limit at the midline, 1:1 target | 531 | 70.6% | $0.15 | −$6.16 to $6.56 | −$3.17 | 34.3% | 23.5% | 16.0% |
| limit at the midline, 1:1 target, 9/21 EMA agreeing | 393 | 69.0% | −$3.40 | −$11.04 to $4.21 | −$1.09 | 33.3% | 20.9% | 14.8% |
The key-level video. As stated: 81 trades, 24.7% won, −$10.83 a trade — loses a little, but not clearly enough to tell. Across all 5 versions below, none is clear of the noise either way, and 3 of 5 beat the same trades taken on a coin-flip side. 29.6% of its trades got at least 1:2 its way before the original stop, 9.9% got 1:4. The video does not say how soon the reversal candle must come; its other exit is a stop trailed behind each candle. The body stop is only used when the wick stop cannot pay 1:2.
| version | trades | win | a trade | 95% range | coin-flip side | got to 1:2 | 1:3 | 1:4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| reversal within 3 candles, stop to the body if needed for 1:2 | 81 | 24.7% | −$10.83 | −$48.26 to $31.68 | −$0.01 | 29.6% | 17.3% | 9.9% |
| same, stop above the wick only | 74 | 27.0% | −$4.36 | −$45.78 to $39.87 | −$10.39 | 31.1% | 18.9% | 10.8% |
| reversal within 1 candle | 39 | 25.6% | −$7.44 | −$61.66 to $52.01 | −$27.00 | 33.3% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| reversal within 6 candles | 107 | 24.3% | −$19.14 | −$51.13 to $13.87 | −$11.20 | 28.0% | 15.9% | 8.4% |
| stop trailed behind each candle instead of a target | 81 | 33.3% | $4.80 | −$18.77 to $30.09 | −$0.01 | 29.6% | 17.3% | 9.9% |
PFK alpha. As stated: 646 trades, 49.1% won, −$4.11 a trade — loses a little, but not clearly enough to tell. Across all 6 versions below, 3 clearly losing, and 2 of 6 beat the same trades taken on a coin-flip side. 33.6% of its trades got at least 1:2 its way before the original stop, 19.5% got 1:4. “$60” on one micro contract is 30 points; 15 and 60 are run too, market and limit.
| version | trades | win | a trade | 95% range | coin-flip side | got to 1:2 | 1:3 | 1:4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| “$60” read as 30 points, market entry | 646 | 49.1% | −$4.11 | −$8.76 to $0.53 | −$2.95 | 33.6% | 24.5% | 19.5% |
| “$60” read as 30 points, limit entry | 398 | 43.2% | −$11.14 | −$17.17 to −$5.41 | −$4.91 | 30.7% | 22.9% | 18.6% |
| “$60” read as 15 points, market entry | 657 | 47.3% | −$4.60 | −$6.88 to −$2.13 | −$4.17 | 31.1% | 23.1% | 18.1% |
| “$60” read as 15 points, limit entry | 423 | 43.5% | −$6.90 | −$9.60 to −$4.06 | −$6.08 | 31.7% | 24.1% | 20.3% |
| “$60” read as 60 points, market entry | 597 | 52.6% | $3.16 | −$6.44 to $12.41 | −$2.98 | 32.0% | 14.9% | 8.4% |
| “$60” read as 60 points, limit entry | 345 | 54.2% | $6.82 | −$5.87 to $19.24 | −$2.94 | 33.6% | 18.6% | 10.4% |
The 5-minute range video. As stated: 896 trades, 33.1% won, −$0.74 a trade — loses a little, but not clearly enough to tell. Across all 2 versions below, none is clear of the noise either way, and 1 of 2 beat the same trades taken on a coin-flip side. 31.9% of its trades got at least 1:2 its way before the original stop, 16.2% got 1:4.
| version | trades | win | a trade | 95% range | coin-flip side | got to 1:2 | 1:3 | 1:4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| with the retest entry | 896 | 33.1% | −$0.74 | −$8.90 to $7.55 | −$3.44 | 31.9% | 22.5% | 16.2% |
| without the retest entry | 390 | 29.7% | −$7.44 | −$18.14 to $3.56 | −$2.80 | 29.0% | 22.3% | 16.7% |
Everything else worth saying
Why the teachers are kept apart. Merging them would produce a sixth set of rules that nobody taught.
Numbers they do not give are shown across their range, not picked. The replay uses the first row of each table.
Coin-flip side takes the same entry, time, stop distance and target with the direction chosen at random. A real edge should beat it.
Three things the videos cannot settle, set the neutral way: a limit order fills when price touches it; if one minute touches both the stop and the target, the stop is counted; anything still open at 15:59 is closed there.
What this test does not do
It tests each teacher's stated rules. Anything that needs their judgement on the day is left out rather than guessed.
- Higher-timeframe targets in the 9:30 gap video: past 1:4 the stop trails behind each 5-minute candle instead. The hand-drawn level is read as the high and low before the open, and later trades in the day reuse it.
- Pat's “recent level” target and daily bias; Pat says the bias was not used on the live trade.
- Swing and V-shape levels in the key-level video.
- PFK alpha's round-number levels, which the video calls abstract.
- The replay is a sample: 38 mornings, scored over the whole period.
If you teach the open differently, say how and we will test it the same way and publish it.
Five teachers, one open, five different rule sets. Each is tested as that teacher states it, on Nasdaq, and kept apart.
Read it in their own words first: